Understand a biotech catalyst before it happens.
FuzeBio lists upcoming trial readouts and FDA events for the biotech companies it covers. Open one to see what we know about it, our estimate of the company's value, and how that estimate changes if the drug is approved, fails or is delayed.
One dated event can re-rate a company.
A catalyst is an event that may change the investment case: a trial result, an FDA decision, an advisory committee vote. For a development-stage company, a few of them can decide much of what it is worth.
The outcome is close to binary
A trial meets its main goal or it does not, and the FDA approves a drug or it does not. For a company whose value rests on one or two drugs, a single result can change what the whole business is worth, in either direction.
The date is usually public
Advisory committee meetings, trial completion dates and many FDA decision dates are written down months ahead. The date is rarely the surprise. The result is.
Cash sets the clock
A company whose cash runs out before its data usually has to raise money first, often by selling new shares. Whether the cash reaches the event matters as much as the event.
Most drugs fail
Of every 100 programmes that entered Phase 1 between 2011 and 2020, this is roughly how many reached each stage. That is why every drug still in development carries a probability of success in our valuations.
- Enter Phase 1Starting point100
- Reach Phase 252.0% move on52.0
- Reach Phase 328.9% of those move on15.0
- Reach an FDA filing57.8% of those are filed8.7
- ApprovedLikelihood of approval from Phase 17.9◆ (source: BIO / Informa / QLS, 2011–2020, opens in a new tab)
Investors who want to understand the event, not just its date.
FuzeBio is for individual investors who hold or follow development-stage biotech. The documents that decide these companies are public, but they are written for regulators and clinicians. Reading a trial design, a regulatory history and a balance sheet together is what separates a considered view from a bet on a headline.
We do that reading for you and keep the source beside what we found, so an experienced reader can check it and a newcomer can follow it.
From the date to the valuation, in three steps.
- 01
See what is coming up
The catalyst list shows dated trial readouts and FDA events for the companies we cover: the event, its date, where the date came from, and a low, medium or high rating of how much it could matter to the company. Filter by time window or event type, or search for a company or drug.
Free, no account needed. A free account adds a "My companies" filter.
- 02
Open the catalyst on its company page
Each row opens the company page on its Valuation tab, with that event expanded: the source behind the date, what we know about the drug, its trial and its regulatory history, and how long the company's cash lasts against the event date.
Free on every company.
- 03
Test the outcome
Above the catalysts sits our estimated value per share, with a bear, base and bull range beside the share price. Pick an outcome (approval or positive data, failure, or a delay) and a probability, and the same valuation re-rates. You can also adjust the model yourself: each drug's probability of success and peak sales, and the discount rate.
Pro, or free on the sample companies.
Behind the valuation
A language model with web search researches each company from public sources, starting with its SEC filings and press releases, and ties each statement it keeps to the pages it came from. The result is a dated research snapshot: each drug's indication, phase, peak sales and probability of success, with the reasoning behind them. Cash, debt and share count are taken from the SEC filings themselves. The model, its inputs and what it leaves out are on How it works.
You could open every source yourself.
FuzeBio has no private data and claims no informational edge. It reads the public sources below and keeps a date and a link on what it found.
Company filings
SEC 8-K and 6-K filings found through EDGAR full-text search. A date read from a filing keeps the sentence it came from.
ClinicalTrials.gov
Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials and their registered primary completion dates.
FDA advisory committee calendar
Scheduled advisory committee meetings, read from the FDA's own calendar.
SEC financial data
Cash, short-term investments, debt, share count and operating cash flow, from 10-K and 10-Q filings.
FDA records
Approval records and complete response letters, each on its own page on this site.
Share prices
From Massive: the previous trading session's close, not a live feed.
We don't tell you what to buy
FuzeBio produces research, not recommendations, allocations, or price targets to act on unexamined. We are not registered investment advisers and nothing on the platform is advice.
We don't claim to predict readouts
No one can tell you whether a Phase 3 trial will succeed. A company page shows the event, what is known about the drug and the probability the model assumes, and lets you test your own.
We don't hide the assumptions
Every valuation depends on inputs someone chose. Ours are shown beside the number. If you disagree with a probability of success, change it on a sample company or with Pro, and the valuation follows.
We don't fill gaps with guesses
When a company hasn't disclosed something, the page says the data isn't available, and a valuation missing a critical input names the input instead of showing a number. An empty field is more useful than a confident invention.
Start with what is coming up.
Find a date you have been watching, open it, and check whether the source behind it says what the row says.